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QairnelParis · New York
COMPUTATIONAL NEUROSCIENCE & DIGITAL TWINS

Mastering Disease Heterogeneity in Neuroscience Trials

A longitudinal patient platform that identifies individuals at risk of neurodegenerative disease, continuously assesses their disease state, and models individual progression trajectories from early detection through clinical endpoint analysis.

Explore the Platform
Primary Endpoint Inference
p = 0.084 (Non-significant)
Impact on trial design
Wide overlap / Unexplained Variance
High Variance Overlap Masks True Drug EfficacyPlacebo ArmTreatment Arm← Greater Clinical DeclineDisease Stabilization →Primary Endpoint Change (Δ Clinical Scale)
Placebo ArmTreatment Arm
* Illustrative statistical simulation
4 of Top 10

Global Pharma Sponsors utilizing our trajectory models

65,000+

Screened & Qualified Trial Candidates

15% – 25%

Sample Size Reduction via Regulatory Covariate Adjustment

15+ Years

Foundational R&D from Paris Brain Institute (ICM)

< 4 Weeks

Delivery of Digital Twin Covariates Post Data-Lock

THE CLINICAL BOTTLENECK

Trial Failure Is Often a Symptom of Disease Heterogeneity, Not Drug Inefficacy.

Promising compounds routinely miss their primary endpoints not because the mechanism of action is flawed, but because trials cannot account for the clinicopathological mismatch. Two patients can enter a study with identical amyloid, tau, or genetic profiles: one deteriorates rapidly, while the other remains functionally stable for 18 months due to cognitive reserve and individual compensation.

Standard trial protocols capture only static, six-month snapshots in an artificial clinic environment. This unmeasured baseline variance drowns the drug’s true treatment effect in statistical noise, forcing sponsors to artificially oversize cohorts or risk trial failure on inconclusive endpoints.

The Static Snapshot Blindness

Standard on-site screening captures a single point in time, offering insufficient resolution to reliably separate rapid clinical progressors from compensating non-progressors.

6-Month Clinic Interval Gap

The Variance Penalty

High unexplained outcome variance erodes statistical power, forcing sponsors to add 20–30% more patients just to overpower the baseline noise.

+20–30% Cohort Inflation

The Biomarker Screening Bottleneck

Restricting trial entry to amyloid- and tau-positive populations drives screen failure rates above 90%, without guaranteeing a homogeneous clinical progression trajectory.

90%+ Screen Failure Rates
GENERATIVE TRAJECTORY PREDICTION

From Baseline Observations to Individualized Trajectory Forecast

Trained on longitudinal multi-cohort datasets, CourseMap AI projects baseline multimodal observations and prior DocMemo dynamics onto a learned disease manifold to forecast each patient’s 24-month functional decline.

Quick Clinical ArchetypesPreset Active
Or Fine-Tune Observed Baseline Inputs (M0)
68 Centiloids
52th Percentile
3. APOE ε4 GenotypeHeterozygous (ε3/ε4)
z = -1.3 SD
78 / 100

Longitudinal home cognitive dynamics prior to enrollment

CourseMap AI Generative Model → Prognostic Twin Y_i*
CourseMap AI Generative Forecast (Pre-trained Model)
Moderate Functional Decline
Predicted 18M Progression (CDR-SB):+1.28 pts (Worsening)
Intact (Ref)Mild DeclineModerateSevereM0 (Baseline)M6M12M18 (Endpoint)M24Population Mean (Unadjusted)
CourseMap AI Individual ForecastReference Population MeanPopulation Variance Cone

* Illustrative simulation of CourseMap AI’s statistical modeling principles.

THE UNIFIED PLATFORM

One Longitudinal Platform from Early Real-World Detection to Primary Endpoint Analysis

We combine longitudinal ecological phenotyping in the community with patient digital twins to capture and neutralize disease progression variance across the full trial lifecycle.

UPSTREAM · DOCMEMO

DocMemo Engine — Ecological Phenotyping & Real-World Staging

Focus: Community capture before and alongside site visits.

Identifies individuals with subjective memory complaints in the community before formal clinical screening and longitudinally assesses their cognitive state—capturing subtle cognitive decline and real-world progression dynamics.

65,000+
Qualified Users
12+
Partner Trial Sites
85%
Candidates Naive to Sites
US + EU
Active Deployment
Clinical Impact

Triage biologically aligned candidates, eliminate site screening friction, and capture baseline cognitive risk profiles as explanatory covariates.

DOWNSTREAM · COURSEMAP AI

CourseMap AI Engine — Spatiotemporal Digital Twins

Focus: Prognostic Covariate Adjustment & Variance Neutralization.

A longitudinal generative modeling architecture that maps non-linear disease progression trajectories across clinical scores, MRI volumetrics, PET imaging, and fluid biomarkers.

~5,000
AD Patients Validated
#1 / 56
TADPOLE Benchmark (Nature Comms)
15% – 25%
Cohort Size Reduction
4 Indications
AD · PD · ALS · HD
Clinical Impact

Generates patient digital twins at baseline to adjust for individual progression variance in the primary analysis, reducing required sample size by 15–25% without regulatory friction.

INTERACTIVE ARCHITECTURE

The Upstream-to-Downstream Trial Continuum

Select or hover any stage to inspect data flow

DocMemo Ecological Telemetry

Home-based capture of cognitive micro-dynamics and subtle cognitive decline in individuals with subjective memory complaints.

01 · DOCMEMO (COMMUNITY)
Micro-Test Latency Dispersion
σ = 142 ms (IIV)

Intra-individual reaction time variability across repeated sessions

Episodic Memory Stress-Test
Automated FCSRT

Free & Cued Selective Reminding with intercurrent interference coding

DocMemo Cognitive Risk
Risk Score: 78 / 100

Quantifies subtle cognitive decline before clinical scale threshold

Output: Pre-qualified candidate vector + Baseline Cognitive Risk Covariate (R_i)15–25% Sample Size Reduction
REGULATORY-GRADE METHODOLOGY

De-Risking Primary Endpoints Within Standard Regulatory Frameworks

Qairnel’s prognostic digital twin technology is fully aligned with FDA and EMA guidances on prognostic covariate adjustment in randomized clinical trials.

Statutory Reference Alignment
  • FDA Final Guidance: Adjusting for Covariates in Randomized Clinical Trials (May 2023)
  • EMA Guideline on Adjustment for Baseline Covariates (EMA/CHMP/295050/2013)

Zero Type I Error Inflation

Digital twins are generated strictly using pre-randomization baseline data, maintaining blinding and fully preserving valid statistical inference under the primary Statistical Analysis Plan (SAP).

Pragmatic Regulatory Adoption & Hybrid Control Horizons

Deployed today as a non-disruptive prognostic covariate within standard randomized arms—delivering immediate power gains with full FDA and EMA endorsement—while progressively building the empirical and regulatory evidence required for future hybrid and external control applications in rare neurological indications.

Data Privacy & Integrity

Fully compliant with HIPAA (US), GDPR (EU), and 21 CFR Part 11 standards.

PROVEN CLINICAL VALIDATION

Validated in Phase II Parkinson’s Disease: The MOVES-PD Study

Joint publication with Sanofi demonstrating significant variance reduction and statistical power gain.

The Challenge

High endpoint variance in early Parkinson’s progression obscuring efficacy signal in this Phase 2 study.

The Qairnel Deployment

CourseMap AI generated individual prognostic progression twins using baseline clinical and biomarker variables, integrated directly into the standard MMRM statistical model.

Explore All 3 Clinical Case Studies
Primary Endpoint Impact
+15% Statistical Power Gain

Narrowed confidence intervals of the treatment effect, achieving formal statistical significance on the primary endpoint.

Sample Size Equivalence
361 → 304 Patients (-15%)

Demonstrated identical statistical power for subsequent Phase 3 design with significantly fewer required subjects.

Ready to Master Disease Heterogeneity in Your Next Protocol?

Schedule a 30-minute scientific consultation with our biostatistics and neurology modeling leads.

B2B Scientific Consultation

Request a Protocol Trajectory Audit

Direct 30-minute briefing with our Biostatistics & Computational Neurology leads.

Please use your institutional or pharmaceutical corporate email address.
Target Clinical Trial Phase *
Target Indication Focus
HIPAA | GDPR | 21 CFR Part 11 AlignedParis · New York